Singapore exports swing to 4.6% contraction in July, worse than what market was bracing for
This takes year-to-date NODX growth to 3.6%, above the official full-year forecast range
[SINGAPORE] The Republic’s key exports contracted by a larger extent than market expectation in July after a surprise surge in the month before, data from Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) showed on Monday (Aug 18).
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) shrank 4.6 per cent year on year in July, worse than the 1 per cent contraction that private-sector analysts polled by Bloomberg were expecting.
Additionally, June’s growth was revised down 0.1 percentage point to 12.9 per cent year on year.
Economists noted that July’s numbers, the worst since October 2024, is partly due to the high base from a year ago.
July’s performance brings year-to-date NODX growth to 3.6 per cent, which sits above the official full-year forecast range of 1 to 3 per cent that the authorities reiterated just last week.
Meanwhile, non-oil re-exports (NORX) surged 22.1 per cent year on year, extending June’s 18.3 per cent jump.
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This suggests the front-loading momentum persisted into July, particularly as electronics NORX remained robust, said UOB senior economist Alvin Liew.
Electronic shipments grew by 2.8 per cent year on year, easing from June’s 8 per cent, largely helped by a surge in printed circuit board exports.
The export of non-electronic products fell 6.6 per cent year on year in July, reversing from the 14.4 per cent expansion in the previous month. This was attributed to pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals and food preparations.
Out of Singapore’s top 10 export markets, NODX expanded only in four of them: Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and the eurozone.
The worst-performing market for the Republic was the US, where exports contracted 42.7 per cent year on year, extending the previous month’s decline.
Exports to China shrank 12.2 per cent on the year, swinging from the 8.5 per cent expansion in June.
Overall, total trade grew 8.4 per cent year on year in July, extending the previous month’s 5.3 per cent rise, as both exports and imports grew.
Several analysts said NODX will remain weak given the tariff situation as well as the anticipated “payback” once any boost from the front-loading dissipates.
“At this juncture, while the US baseline reciprocal tariff of 10 per cent for Singapore looks unlikely to change, the looming storm is over possible tariffs for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals,” said OCBC chief economist Selena Ling.
In particular, RHB group chief economist Barnabas Gan noted that tariffs imposed on these key industries could have an outsized impact on the country’s export performance and gross domestic product trajectory – given the economy’s exposure, as well as its high trade-to-GDP ratio.
However, Maybank economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee are hopeful there would be exemptions to some US multinational corporations in Singapore, such as Micron and GlobalFoundries, since companies that have “committed to build” in the US will be spared.
Electronics demand also remains strong on the back of broadening artificial intelligence demand, they noted, even if export growth “may lose some momentum” after higher reciprocal tariffs kick in on Aug 1.
Additionally, they believe the decline in NODX is unlikely to persist “given the abnormally high base for last July’s outturn”.
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