Singapore key exports clock surprise 13% jump in June after brief dip
NODX contraction in May revised to 3.9%
[SINGAPORE] The Republic’s key exports jumped 13 per cent year on year in June after contracting briefly in the previous month, data from Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) showed on Thursday (Jul 17).
The May contraction for non-oil domestic exports (NODX) was revised to 3.9 per cent, from an earlier figure of 3.5 per cent.
The jump in June’s exports surprised private-sector economists, who expected a 5 per cent year-on-year increase, according to a Bloomberg poll.
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, NODX surged 14.3 per cent, reversing the 12.4 per cent contraction in May.
Both electronics and non-electronics exports grew in June.
This brings NODX growth for the first half of 2025 to 5.2 per cent year on year.
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EnterpriseSG may release a new forecast in August, it said in a footnote. The current full-year outlook is 1 to 3 per cent.
“EnterpriseSG is actively monitoring the evolving tariff situation and will adjust the 2025 NODX forecast as necessary to reflect changing market conditions,” it said.
Barclays regional economist Brian Tan said that in contrast to the rebound in NODX, the visible pullback in non-oil re-export (NORX) indicates the “export front-loading that had really boosted second-quarter gross domestic product had already waned significantly by June and is likely on track to experience heavy payback in H2”.
NORX volumes, he noted, fell 5.8 per cent in June, following an already sharp 18.4 per cent drop in May.
“This supports our view that the Q2 GDP outperformance is unsustainable. The main driver of the Q2 GDP strength was not manufacturing – where NODX might be more relevant – but services,” he said.
NODX performance
Shipments of electronic products grew 8 per cent year on year, extending the previous month’s 1.6 per cent growth. This was helped largely by integrated circuits, personal computers and bare printed circuit boards.
Non-electronic exports jumped 14.5 per cent on the year, swinging from the 5.8 per cent contraction in May. In particular, non-monetary gold surged by 211.9 per cent, while specialised machinery and other speciality chemicals also contributed to the increase.
Exports to fewer than half of Singapore’s top 10 markets grew in June.
NODX to Hong Kong expanded by the largest extent at 54.4 per cent year on year, following a 0.1 per cent increase in the previous month.
This was followed by South Korea at 33 per cent year on year, Taiwan at 28.3 per cent and China at 8.5 per cent.
“The resilient growth in electronics exports to these destinations could reflect the positive impact from the front-loading of electronics exports orders flowing through the global supply chain, in which Singapore is an integral part of, amid the temporary exemption of US import levies on electronics,” said DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng.
Exports to the eurozone contracted by the largest extent in June at 23.6 per cent year on year, reversing the 8.4 per cent growth in May.
This was followed by Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the US and Japan. In particular, exports to the US shrank by 4.8 per cent year on year, easing from the 20.6 per cent contraction in May.
Overall, total trade grew by 5.4 per cent year on year, extending the 1 per cent increase in May.
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