Singapore key exports slump eases to 13.2% in September
Sharon See
SINGAPORE’S key exports shrank by 13.2 per cent year on year in September, easing from the 22.5 per cent slump in the previous month, data from Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) showed on Tuesday (Oct 17).
This marks the 12th straight month of decline for Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports; both electronics and non-electronics exports fell.
Still, September’s performance turned out to be better than the 15 per cent contraction that private-sector economists polled by Bloomberg were expecting.
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, however, NODX grew 11.1 per cent last month as both categories of exports increased, undoing August’s 6.6 per cent decrease.
This brought the seasonally adjusted value of NODX to S$14.5 billion in September, outperforming the previous month at S$13.1 billion.
Electronic shipments fell 11.6 per cent year on year, slowing down from the 21.1 per cent contraction in August. The decline was largely due to the fall in exports of integrated circuits, personal computers (PC) and parts of PCs, EnterpriseSG said.
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As for non-electronic products, exports fell 13.6 per cent year on year in September, easing from the preceding month’s 22.9 per cent contraction. In particular, exports of pharmaceuticals, non-monetary gold and food preparations contributed the most to the decline.
NODX to Singapore’s top 10 markets declined as a whole last month, but there was a rebound in exports to the US, Hong Kong and China.
Key exports to the US grew 9.7 per cent year on year, an improvement over the previous month’s 32.4 per cent slump; shipments to Hong Kong surged 55 per cent year on year, reversing August’s 5.9 per cent fall; and exports to China jumped 26.2 per cent year on year, in contrast to the 19.3 per cent decline previously.
Meanwhile, the contraction in NODX to most other top markets deepened.
Exports to Taiwan contracted a 34.9 per cent year on year, extending the 31.5 per cent decline in August; NODX to Indonesia plunged 45.2 per cent year on year, worsening from the previous month’s 27.9 per cent decline; and shipments to Malaysia fell 19.8 per cent, furthering the 14.1 per cent decrease previously.
On the whole, total trade contracted by 12.3 per cent year on year in September, extending the 15.5 per cent decline in the previous month.
Sequentially, total trade rose 4.2 per cent in September, outpacing the 1.1 per cent increase in the previous month.
DBS economist Chua Han Teng said he expects NODX to recover gradually towards the year-end and early next year, with base effects becoming “more supportive” over the coming months.
“Forward-looking indicators also point to a gradual and fragile exports recovery in a still uncertain global economic environment,” he said, noting that new export orders within Singapore’s Purchasing Managers’ Index improved for the fourth straight month in Sep 23, returning to the 50.0 mark that separates expansion and contraction.
He said Singapore’s electronics exports are expected to benefit from the modest turnaround in global semiconductor sales, and medium-term optimism over AI-related chips, but added that recovery would be fragile, as geopolitical tensions could still disrupt supply chains.
Alex Holmes, lead Asia economist from Oxford Economics, said he remains cautious on the export outlook.
“Tight monetary policy in the important export destinations of the US and EU will likely cause an extended period of anaemic growth, if not a shallow recession. That would further weigh on their import demand,” he said.
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