Singapore import costs to face pressure amid energy price hikes: MAS; Feb core inflation accelerates to 1.4%
It will update inflation outlook in April policy statement; MAS, MTI keep 2026 core and headline inflation forecasts at 1-2% but flag that prices likely to increase
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[SINGAPORE] The Republic’s core inflation picked up, while headline inflation eased in February, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said on Monday (Mar 23).
Core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private transport, was 1.4 per cent in February, up from 1 per cent the preceding month, and slightly higher than the 1.3 per cent rise median predicted by private-sector economists in a Bloomberg poll.
The latest print was largely due to higher inflation in services, food, as well as retail and other goods, partly reflecting seasonal effects associated with the Chinese New Year, the authorities said.
Seasonal factors associated with the festivities boosted year-on-year inflation, considering that Chinese New Year fell in January last year, but in February this year, they added.
Meanwhile, headline inflation moderated to 1.2 per cent in February from January ’s 1.4 per cent, matching the private-sector economist estimate indicated in a Bloomberg poll.
Lower accommodation and private transport inflation more than offset higher core inflation, MAS and MTI said.
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On a month-on-month basis, the core prices increased 0.5 per cent in February, while the all-items consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.6 per cent.
MTI and MAS kept their 2026 full-year forecast range at 1 to 2 per cent for both core and headline inflation, but flagged that prices are likely to increase.
Highlighting the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, they said that global energy prices have risen significantly in recent weeks, and Singapore’s import cost pressures are likely to pick up in the near term.
Domestically, they anticipate that unit labour cost growth will edge higher this year, but added that the extent will be dampened by sustained productivity growth.
Meanwhile, the authorities said private consumption demand should remain steady, amid continued real wage increases.
While they kept the official inflation forecasts for 2026 unchanged, they said: “MAS is assessing recent developments and will provide an update to the inflation outlook in the April Monetary Policy Statement.”
Key CPI categories
In February, inflation trends across CPI categories were mixed.
Retail and other goods inflation crept up to 0.6 per cent, marginally higher than the preceding month’s 0.5 per cent, on account of a larger increase in the cost of medicines and health products, as well as higher prices for furniture and furnishings.
Food inflation rose to 1.6 per cent from 1.2 per cent in January, as the prices of non-cooked food and food services rose at a quicker pace.
Finally, services inflation grew to 2 per cent, up from 1.5 per cent in the previous month, due to an increase in airfares and the cost of holiday expenses.
On the other hand, accommodation inflation slowed sharply to 0.3 per cent, from 1.9 per cent in January, due to a smaller increase in the cost of housing maintenance and repairs.
Private transport inflation also eased in February, coming in at 2.4 per cent in February, down from the preceding month’s 2.7 per cent, due to a larger decline in petrol prices.
February’s electricity and gas prices also fell more sharply than in January, down by 4.3 per cent, compared with the preceding month’s 4.2 per cent.
MAS and MTI attributed this to a steeper decline in electricity prices in February.
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