Singapore’s Covid-19 measures have kept cases from China low; changes to travel volume to be ‘carefully’ calibrated

SINGAPORE’S Covid-19 measures have kept imported infections and severe cases from China low despite the latter’s current wave, said Health Minister Ong Ye Kung in Parliament on Monday (Jan 9), explaining why Singapore is not adopting a blanket pre-departure test requirement.

But the Ministry of Transport will “carefully calibrate” any changes from the current low travel volume with China – less than 10 per cent of pre-Covid norms – at least until the latter’s infection wave has subsided, he added. Singapore’s greatest worry is not infection numbers, but the emergence of a more dangerous variant.

Ong was fielding questions on Singapore’s response to the global Covid-19 situation, in light of China’s easing of border restrictions from Jan 8 despite its surge in cases.

Some countries which earlier removed all border curbs are now reinstating or introducing measures, but Singapore “never dismantled all our border measures, and have kept relevant measures precisely because we anticipated these risks”, said Ong.

The current measures, such as controlling passenger volume and requiring pre-departure tests for at-risk travellers, have kept imported infections low, at about 5 to 10 per cent of total infections detected.

In the four weeks up to Jan 1 – one of the most difficult periods of the epidemic in China, said Ong – about 200 travellers from China tested Covid-positive, representing less than 5 per cent of Singapore’s imported infections.

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Asean countries accounted for more than half; the rest of Asia, around 15 per cent; Europe, 11 per cent; and the Middle East, 9 per cent. Out of seven severe imported cases in this period, only one was from China. There have been no severe infections from China since Jan 1.

Unlike earlier in the pandemic, the probability of Covid-19 infections leading to severe illness or death is very low for Singapore’s population, comparable to other endemic diseases like influenza, said Ong. In the past 30 days, there has been a single-digit number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care, and 25 days with no Covid-19 deaths.

“Hence, with extensive vaccination coverage, we can treat Covid-19 as an endemic disease. Like influenza, topline infection numbers should no longer be our pre-occupation,” he added.

Instead, one concern is the emergence of a more dangerous variant. Such a variant of concern – which may emerge from anywhere – could escape vaccine protection, be more infectious, and lead to more severe cases, said Ong.

If that happens, Singapore may have to reinstate measures such as strict border controls, quarantine and group size limits, he warned. But pre-departure tests cannot detect this, and an effective global surveillance system is needed instead.

One such system is by non-profit organisation Gisaid, which receives up-to-date viral genome data from authorities in major Chinese cities and provinces. “So far, the data shows that the epidemic in China is driven by variants that are well known and have been circulating in other regions of the world,” said Ong, adding that the fear of a dangerous variant has not materialised yet.

A second concern is protecting Singapore’s hospital system. For this, on-arrival PCR tests and wastewater tests for travellers are of limited use, said Ong.

While pre-departure tests could help sieve out Covid-positive patients, there is already low travel volume between Singapore and China, said Ong. This limits the number of imported infections more than a blanket pre-departure testing requirement would.

Therefore, Singapore instead encourages “adequate vaccination” among all inbound travellers, he said: “This directly reduces the risk of importing severe cases and protecting our hospital system.”

Separately, Transport Minister S Iswaran said that Singapore has paced the resumption of flights to ensure that Changi Airport has the physical and operational capacity to support flight and passenger flows.

Each week, there are now 38 flights between China and Singapore, up from 25 in October and 36 around mid-December. This is less than 10 per cent of the pre-pandemic figure of 400 such flights, and about 1.5 per cent of total flights today, said Iswaran.

Singapore receives 700 to 1,000 passengers from China daily, about 1 to 1.5 per cent of total arrivals and less than 10 per cent of pre-Covid levels. More than 60 per cent of them are Singapore citizens, permanent residents or long-term pass holders.

Singapore welcomes China’s moves to restore quarantine-free travel with the world, said Iswaran, adding: “It is in the interest of both our countries to restore our air connectivity in a safe and orderly manner.”

Asked when traveller volumes from China might return to pre-pandemic levels, Iswaran was “reluctant to put a timeline to this process”.

The number of applications from Singapore and Chinese airlines to operate more flights between the two countries indicates that demand is strong, but the government has to consider the evolving public health situation and Changi Airport’s ability to manage any increase in passengers, he said.

The Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore is evaluating such applications and will progressively approve them, said Iswaran. “As with other countries previously, we will carefully restore air connectivity with China... so that we can ensure efficient operations and a safe and smooth travel experience.”