Singapore’s employment growth moderates in Q1 on seasonal factors, but labour market stays resilient

[SINGAPORE] Despite moderating from the preceding quarter, employment growth in the first quarter of 2026 remained stronger than in the year-ago period, showed advance data from the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) on Thursday (Apr 30).

“Preliminary data indicate that Singapore’s labour market remained resilient in Q1 2026,” it said, after total employment in the Republic expanded for the 18th straight quarter.

But it noted that businesses are expected to be more cautious about increasing hiring and wages amid economic uncertainty due to geopolitics. The conflict in the Middle East began at the end of February.

Total employment – excluding migrant domestic workers – grew by 5,000 in Q1 2026, slowing from the 17,700 increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, but more than the 2,300 rise in Q1 2025.

MOM said that this quarter-on-quarter easing reflects seasonal effects – with Chinese New Year falling in Q1 – and a step-down from a high base, instead of a broad-based weakening in the labour market.

“For instance, construction activity typically slows during the Chinese New Year period,” it noted.

After adjusting for seasonality, employment growth is estimated to be about 9,200 in Q1, which remains higher than in the same period a year ago but lower than in the previous quarter. This adjustment removes recurring seasonal influences, such as increased hiring during year-end festivities, that “may otherwise obscure the underlying trend and short-term fluctuations in a time series”, MOM explained.

Employment grew for both residents and non-residents.

For residents, the expansion was concentrated in transportation and storage as well as administrative and support services. For non-residents, it was driven by construction; but this was at a slower pace than in Q4 2025.

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Meanwhile, unemployment rates stayed “low and broadly stable”.

They edged up slightly in March: the overall rate was 2.1 per cent, from 2 per cent in February; the resident rate was 2.9 per cent, from 2.8 per cent; and the citizen rate was 3.1 per cent, from 2.9 per cent.

But they were broadly similar compared with those in December 2025, when overall unemployment rate came in at 2 per cent; resident rate at 2.9 per cent; and citizen rate at 3 per cent.

The incidence of retrenchment, at 1.5 per 1,000 employees in Q1 2026, remained low and unchanged from Q4. At 3,700, the number of retrenchments also remained similar to that in the previous quarter (3,690).

“Retrenchments were stable or declined across most sectors, with a majority occurring due to business reorganisation or restructuring,” MOM said.

Sentiment moderates

The ministry expects the labour market to stay tight and continue to expand.

But it warned that businesses are likely to be more cautious in their hiring and wage plans, against the backdrop of increased economic uncertainty, as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The share of firms expecting to hire in the next three months declined to 44.6 per cent in March, from 54.6 per cent in February. Meanwhile, expectations to raise wages fell to 25.4 per cent, from 39.3 per cent, over the same period.

“Although there are early signs of stabilisation in April, expectations remain below pre-crisis levels in February,” said MOM. “This suggests a more measured pace of hiring, with potential softening if external conditions weaken.”

Stressing the importance of investing in and building up human capital in light of the global headwinds, the ministry highlighted its support schemes for employers, workers, fresh graduates and the “involuntarily unemployed”.

Figures for resident and non-resident employment will next be released in mid-June, alongside other indicators such as job vacancies.