Singapore’s key exports up 7.6% in February, reversing from January drop
But the figure misses economists’ median estimate of a 9.7% increase
[SINGAPORE] Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew 7.6 per cent in February, reversing from the previous month’s contraction, as both electronics and non-electronics exports charted increases, data from Enterprise Singapore showed on Monday (Mar 17).
February’s NODX figure is a turnaround from the previous month’s 2.1 per cent decline, but underperformed against the median 9.7 per cent growth forecast in a Bloomberg poll of private-sector economists.
Private-sector economists warned that export growth could continue to slow if US President Donald Trump’s further tariff threats materialise.
“Singapore faces the risk of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs despite having a free trade agreement with the US, a bilateral trade deficit and low tariffs on US imports,” said Maybank economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee.
Trump has already imposed blanket tariffs on all imports from Canada, Mexico and China, and has slapped duties on a number of products including steel, aluminium and automobiles.
The US president also plans to impose tariffs of around 25 per cent on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports – a move which is likely to negatively impact Singapore, given that it is integrated in the global supply chain for these products, noted Standard Chartered Asia economist Jonathan Koh.
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In particular, the proposed tariffs on pharmaceutical imports could “pose a challenge” for Singapore given that biomedical-related products account for 14.1 per cent of the Republic’s exports to the US, noted RHB analysts Barnabas Gan and Laalitha Raveenthar.
Should Trump’s protectionist policies intensify, NODX growth could slow and even turn negative in the second half of 2025, said the Maybank analysts. Still, they kept to their full-year forecast of 3 per cent, which is at the upper limit of the official forecast range of 1 to 3 per cent.
Meanwhile, the RHB analysts maintained their forecast of 2 per cent NODX growth for 2025, also within the official forecast range.
Electronics recovery
Electronics exports rose 6.9 per cent in February, narrowing from the 9.5 per cent rise the month before. Disk media products (40.6 per cent), integrated circuits (6.9 per cent) and PCs (28.5 per cent) led the increase.
RHB’s Gan and Raveenthar believes the electronics sector will see “continuous growth”, supported by ongoing demand for electronics and electrical equipment in the medium term.
They noted that global semiconductor sales are expected to grow by 11.2 per cent in 2025, after a strong 19.1 per cent growth in 2024.
Non-electronic shipments grew 7.8 per cent year on year, rebounding from the 4.8 per cent decline recorded in January. Non-monetary gold (106.9 per cent), measuring instruments (23.1 per cent) and other speciality chemicals (37.5 per cent) contributed most to the increase.
NODX to most of Singapore’s top markets expanded in February, with only Indonesia (-5.3 per cent), Hong Kong (-21.2 per cent) and China (-27.4 per cent) recording declines.
In contrast, NODX to the US, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan continued to expand in February, while NODX to the European Union, Malaysia and Thailand rebounded after contracting in the previous month.
Overall, total trade climbed 4.6 per cent from the corresponding year-ago period, slowing from the 6.6 per cent growth in the preceding month. Total exports rose 5.4 per cent, while total imports gained 3.7 per cent. Both recorded faster expansions than in January.
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