Will the political revelations of 2023 shape Singapore’s next election?

IN 2023, a flurry of revelations shook Singapore politics. The question is whether their ripples will extend far enough to affect the next general election, which is due by late 2025.

One complication is that some of these events are still unfolding, not least a high-level corruption probe involving a minister – the first such investigation in four decades.

Last July, Transport Minister S Iswaran and billionaire hotelier Ong Beng Seng were revealed to have been arrested and released on bail, as part of investigations by the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau (CPIB).

Soon after, three Members of Parliament (MPs) – two from the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) and one from the opposition Workers’ Party (WP) – resigned in quick succession after their respective extramarital affairs were exposed.

Earlier that year, the rental of Ridout Road state properties by two ministers had been hotly discussed, though both were cleared of any wrongdoing in the matter.

In another country, any of these incidents might have just been another day in politics. But in squeaky-clean Singapore, these unlikely matters dominated headlines and public discussions for weeks, and were each addressed and debated in Parliament.

Chong Ja Ian, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, sees the events as a reminder that Singapore’s political system must evolve.

“They highlight the greater need for transparency and restraint on authority in Singapore’s political system, especially as the interests of people with money and authority get ever more complex,” he said.

But for Woo Jun Jie, senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies, such events show that Singapore’s governance system is “highly resilient”.

Another hotly-discussed topic in 2023 – though not one that was related to politics – was a major money-laundering bust by the authorities in August. Both this bust and the CPIB corruption probe reflect the Singapore system’s ability to “detect lapses and investigate them through the necessary due processes”, said Dr Woo.

Eugene Tan, associate professor of law at the Singapore Management University, thinks that Singapore’s politics has been shaken not so much by the events themselves, but by “differing expectations of politicians”.

Noting that a recurring term in these episodes was “optics”, he said: “For me, it raised the question of whether we want our politics to be optics-driven.”

Impact at the polls

When the Presidential Election was called and campaigning began in August, some wondered if these incidents would hurt the chances of former senior minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who left the PAP to become a candidate.

The answer: apparently not. He secured a 70 per cent landslide victory against former GIC investment chief Ng Kok Song and former NTUC Income chief executive Tan Kin Lian.

Prof Tan said that this showed the electorate’s ability to understand the president’s role and its limitations, as well as to look beyond race.

But at the next General Election (GE) – which must be held no later than Nov 23, 2025 – the events of 2023 could well weigh on voters’ minds.

Prof Tan said 2023 could be described as PAP’s annus horribilis. The Ridout Road rental controversy, MP resignations and ongoing corruption probe could all seen as setbacks for the ruling party, he added.

“The GE is not going to turn on any of these high-profile political mishaps in 2023, but the PAP will be on the defensive and have to rebuild trust and confidence among voters.”

As the incumbent, the PAP is likely to pay a higher price for setbacks than the WP, he noted.

As for the WP, Dr Woo believes it will continue to face the fallout from the 2022 controversy over former MP Raeesah Khan and the affair between former party heavyweights Leon Perera and Nicole Seah.

“Voters will expect to hear about the WP’s efforts in strengthening its internal processes for handling misconduct and inappropriate behaviour among its members, and whether the party leadership can retain its credibility among voters,” he said.

But Prof Chong noted one thing that makes WP’s chances “more mixed and perhaps not really as bad as some may expect” – the Court of Appeal’s finding that WP MPs were not liable for alleged fiduciary lapses in the long-running case involving its Aljunied-Hougang Town Council.

When the GE rolls around, Prof Chong expects some voters to remember the various incidents as “an indication of the various political parties’ positions on transparency and ability to address limits on authority”.

But voter memories also tend to be short, he said. At the eventual GE, he expects a focus on “day-to-day governance” at both the national and constituency levels, as well as matters such as housing, cost of living and medical care.

Timing and transition

Another likely focus during the GE, said Dr Woo, will be Singapore’s fourth-generation (4G) leadership: “Given that the upcoming election will be deeply intertwined with the 4G handover, we can expect voters to be much more focused on future trajectories than usual.”

There is a chance that PM-in-waiting Lawrence Wong will lead the next GE campaign, as Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has indicated his intention to hand over the reins ahead of the PAP’s 70th anniversary in November 2024, “if all goes well”.

Said Dr Chong: “To me, an earlier handover, with Wong leading the PAP into the next election, (would be) an indication of confidence in his leadership and the upcoming PAP leaders, from the outgoing leadership.”

However, Prof Tan sees it as a “high-risk” move for a newly appointed prime minister to call a GE.

“What is clear is that Wong will be the PAP secretary-general by the end of 2024 latest – more likely in November 2024 when the PAP has its biennial CEC (central executive committee) election,” said Prof Tan. “Is PM Lee handing over the premiership at about the same time? I am not so sure.”

He laid out three possible windows for the GE: soon after Budget 2024; after the PAP’s CEC election in November; or after Budget 2025.

Regardless of timing, “we are clearly in election mode”, he said. For instance, Budget 2024 may feature policies to alleviate cost-of-living pressures – a likely key concern of the electorate.

Maybank economist Brian Lee noted “ample fiscal space” for additional support in the upcoming Budget, akin to the S$1.1 billion cost-of-living support package announced in September.

The government’s operating revenue is on track to exceed projections for fiscal year 2023, he noted. Total collections in the first seven months already amount to nearly 65 per cent of budgeted revenue for the full year.

Observers said that regardless of timing, Wong has his work cut out for him, as he will be taking over at a critical juncture for the country.

“The globalising world that undergirded Singapore’s prosperity and provided a generally stable global environment for growth is under stress, if not already hollowing out with continuing US-China competition, greater protectionism, and multiple crises,” said Prof Chong.

“Wong’s greatest challenge is to provide a plan for Singapore in this changing world, including communicating with Singaporeans about why the path he proposes is reasonable, as well as the costs necessary to achieve his aims.”

At home, Singapore society is “edgier and harder to please” today, said Prof Tan.

“Edgier because post-pandemic, the recovery hasn’t been all rosy despite the groundwork being laid during the pandemic. And so (there are) concerns about cost of living, what the future might hold, job insecurity – not helped by a world rife with geopolitical conflict,” he said.

At the same time, Singaporeans are “harder to please” because their expectations have grown even as the same vulnerabilities remain.

“Wong’s most difficult challenge is to persuade Singaporeans that he and his team are equal to the task of leading Singapore in a more insecure world and uncertain future, and that one-party dominance remains fit for purpose even as the desire for political diversity and competition grows,” said Prof Tan.

In October, Wong offered a glimpse into the direction he and his 4G team will take, with the release of the Forward Singapore report. This sets out seven key policy shifts, following a 16-month feedback exercise that involved 200,000 citizens.

These policy directions include respecting and rewarding every job, such as by reducing wage gaps; as well as supporting displaced workers and families, including possible further increases to paid parental leave.

For some of the policy shifts, the gears were in motion even months before the report’s release. At the annual National Day Rally, for example, PM Lee announced measures to make public housing more equitable, as well as greater support for vulnerable and elderly Singaporeans.

“Drifting to the left”

Beyond the next election, the key policy shifts laid out in the Forward Singapore report could indicate a broader change of trajectory.

At the Bloomberg New Economy Forum last November, PM Lee was asked if, given the increase in social transfers in recent years, the PAP government has been “drifting to the left”.

PM Lee replied then that Singapore has been “sailing carefully to a more comfortable place”, with the country in a phase where “we have to do more together” and help each other.

Commenting on PM Lee’s remarks, Prof Tan said this is “not a drift but a clear shift to the left”. This shift is a political-economic imperative for the country, he added.

“It is, in some respects, a necessary corrective to the neoliberal economic exuberance of the 1990s and 2000s,” he said. “In other respects, the shift is reformative because society has changed and expectations have grown, and a permanent underclass is going to be divisive for Singapore.”

“We are now a welfarist state, but not a welfare state. The shift is not necessarily bad if the extra social spending serves a dual purpose of being investments for a better future for all, and that they are fiscally sustainable and do not weaken the work ethic and personal and family resilience.”

Prof Chong said that as Singapore faces changing demographics, high property prices and the persistent issue of inequality – much like many developed countries – it may be important to rethink its approach to redistribution.

“Just as Singapore became more market-oriented and focused on privatisation in the late 1980s and 1990s with changes in structural conditions, current challenges may require a similar adjustment today,” he said.

He added that the Singapore system between the 1960s and mid-1980s featured greater state intervention in the economy and society, including on redistributive mechanisms.