Cathay Pacific cargo haul, not passengers, helps win hearts

[SINGAPORE] It took about nine months for Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd to win its first buy rating from an analyst. When the upgrade came, it was because of the airline's cargo operations, not its five-star-rated passenger business.

Jefferies Group LLC raised the rating on Cathay's stock to buy this month, citing signs of a pullback in capacity expansion and improved outlook for global cargo demand and yields. That's a good start for the marquee brand, which said in May it would cut 600 jobs as part of the biggest revamp in two decades following the carrier's first full-year loss since 2008.

"Our impression is it's still difficult out there, but there are one or two signs that things are not as bad as they seem," said Andrew Lee, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Jefferies.

"One is air cargo," with the other being cost-saving steps, he said in an interview, after raising the stock to buy from sell June 7.

Cathay shares were unchanged at HK$12.38 in Hong Kong on Friday. The stock has advanced 21 per cent this year, compared with a 16 per cent gain for the city's Hang Seng Index.

With mainland China as its backyard and a boom in e-commerce in the region, Asia's biggest international airline has been expanding its cargo business even as it streamlines the structure by getting rid of the role of cargo director. The carrier leased two Boeing Co 747 freighters in May to expand its cargo fleet 23, after cancelling an order for eight Boeing 777-200 freighters four years ago.

Difficult Year

In a presentation to analysts posted on its website Friday, Cathay said cargo was the bright spot this year in a "challenging operational environment". While 2017 will remain a "difficult year", the carrier expects signs of improvement in the second half as it struggles to improve yields - a key measure of profitability - in its passenger business.

Cathay's cargo yield is likely to rise 5.2 per cent this year as the tonnage increases, according to Jefferies' Mr Lee. The average cargo load factor was about 66 per cent in the first five months of the year, versus 62 per cent last year.

Most market indicators are suggesting a "solid year" for air cargo, with demand from Hong Kong and key Asian markets to North America, Europe and India remaining buoyant, Cathay said on its website earlier.

Still, none of the remaining 19 analysts tracked by Bloomberg recommend buying shares of the Hong Kong-based carrier, giving it the lowest consensus score among members of the Bloomberg World Airlines Index.

Increased competition from regional low-cost carriers and mainland rivals is damping passenger yields despite growing demand for air travel in Asia. The role of Hong Kong as a hub for international travel out of China has also diminished over the years with the rise of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen on the mainland.

The carrier previously said it's targeting savings of about 30 per cent from employee cost cuts at its headquarters. An official at Air China Ltd, which owns 30 per cent of Cathay, said in March that the carrier will reduce more than HK$4 billion (S$710 million) in expenses over three years.

BLOOMBERG