Can history provide pointers to Democratic presidential victor?

WITH Donald Trump's impeachment trial now underway in the Senate, the Democratic presidential contest is entering maximum velocity with the Iowa caucuses on the horizon. While the outcome of the race remains highly uncertain, with multiple candidates who could yet win, history indicates there are patterns to previous races that point to potential success for Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

The past few decades of US political history suggests the victor in nomination contests for both major parties frequently leads national polls of party identifiers on the eve of the first presidential nomination ballot in Iowa, which for the Democrats is this year on Feb 3, and/ or also raises more campaign finance than any other candidate in the 12 months prior to election year.

From 1980 to 2016, for instance, the eventual nominee in around half the Democrat and Republican nomination races contested (that is, in which there was more than one candidate), was the early frontrunner by both of these two measures. This was true of Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016; George W Bush, the Republican candidate in 2000; Al Gore, the Democrat nominee in 2000; Bob Dole, the Republican candidate in 1996; Bill Clinton, the Democrat nominee in 1992; George HW Bush, the Republican candidate in 1988 and 1992; Walter Mondale, the Democrat nominee in 1984; and Jimmy Carter, the Democrat candidate in 1980. Moreover, in at least four partial exceptions to this pattern, the eventual presidential nominee led the rest of the field on one of the two measures. This was true of mr Trump in 2016 (the Republican nominee); Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Republican Ronald Reagan in 1980.