A breath of fresh air

THIS WEEK'S TOPIC: How do you think a Biden administration will affect business?

Wendy Johnstone SVP & COO, APAC Zendesk

With the Biden administration more likely to repair international trade alliances, countries in Asia stand to gain from the return of stability. This is especially true for Singapore with its trade-reliant, open economy. Throughout the pandemic, businesses in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have been adapting and pivoting to meet new needs while embracing digital transformation with new tools and technologies.

The competitive and robust business and tech landscape in Singapore has shown its resilience in the face of global pressures and uncertainties. As we watch how Mr Biden takes his first defining steps, we are confident that the businesses in APAC will continue to turn adversity into opportunity, and stability into strength.

David Sandison Chief Executive Officer Grant Thornton Singapore

Assuming the composition of the two chambers allows free flight to be given to the President-elect's policy intentions, the most important factor for South-east Asia is how China relations will be handled, both economically and politically. Having said that, natural diversification of supply chains away from China will likely happen in any case.

The expected US$2 trillion-plus recovery stimulus package may also create ripples across the world with consequential downward pressure on the US dollar, a bonus for the commodities markets, US exports, and many owing US dollar debt.

Jeffery Tan Group General Counsel & Chief Sustainability Officer Jardine Cycle & Carriage

A Biden administration will, once again, strive to champion American leadership, a connected world and a collaborative global community - all essential elements for success in the business world.

After four long and bizarre years of negatives, rancour and divisiveness, it is wonderful that the United States has been delivered from the grip of an alternative reality and is being restored to an environment where truth, integrity and accountability are celebrated: These are time-tested values that bode well for businesses to grow and thrive, even as they join efforts to fight the pandemic challenges and Build Back Better.

Dean Collins Managing Partner Singapore, Dechert LLP

We foresee several impacts of a Biden administration on key issues and industries, although long-term effects on businesses will depend largely on policies that gain legislative approval. First, we can expect an uptick in antitrust scrutiny in the areas of finance and real estate, particularly for private equity ownership. We also foresee the M&A deal environment remaining generally robust with low interest rates and readily available capital, provided Covid-19 comes under control.

In terms of US-China relations, while Mr Biden may seek opportunities to reduce tensions, we do not anticipate abrupt changes. He has emphasised a desire to take a multilateral approach to trade and global affairs. However, we anticipate continued trade and foreign investment regulation efforts limiting cross-border China-related M&A activities.

Yeoh Oon Jin Executive Chairman PwC Singapore

A Biden administration in and of itself will not change the global megatrends of asymmetry, polarisation and disruption that are shaping our world today. In many ways, businesses are forced to respond to consumer demands for more sustainable practices and online services enabled by technology, regardless of the political leadership in the United States. The technological bifurcation between China and the US and the knock-on ramifications are also unlikely to change. However, we do anticipate some short-term changes though.

Firstly, the planned stimulus packages under the new Biden administration may provide some respite to the economic fallout on the US economy (and indirectly on the global economy) arising from the deteriorating Covid-19 situation in the US. Secondly, the new administration's focus on international alliances may have positive spillover effects on international trade.

Thirdly, the renewed focus on climate change by the new administration will impact global industry structure and businesses will have to factor this dimension in evaluating their supply chains and customers preferences. Businesses will thrive best by focusing on their transformation agenda aimed at addressing these megatrends while keeping an eye on opportunities presented by geopolitical developments.

Victor Mills Chief Executive Singapore International Chamber of Commerce

The President-elect's stated priorities are first, the management of the Covid-19 pandemic and second, rebuilding the economy. He will need the support of businesses to achieve these goals and I think we will see more stimulus packages to help businesses rebuild. Given that it is the one point of political consensus, we can predict with certainty that a Biden administration will be tough on China in terms of intellectual property rights, human rights and trade.

Mr Biden has told foreign leaders that ''America is back!'' The hope is his administration will seek to collaborate to rebuild and reform international institutions, like the WTO, making them fit for purpose for our interconnected and interdependent world.

Adam Reynolds APAC CEO Saxo Markets

The new Biden administration comes in without the much predicted Blue Wave, which will leave the Senate (probably) in the hands of the Republicans, together with the Supreme Court; and the Presidency and House in the hands of the Democrats. This is about as well balanced a government as business could hope for. The reduction in unpredictability which characterised the Trump administration will be a positive, and particularly for overseas businesses which export to the US, who have been dealing with a volatile trade policy.

Additionally, the Senate will prevent the more leftwing idealogues in the Democratic Party from achieving their agenda, which will almost certainly prohibit corporation tax rises. In the longer term, the administration is going to have to deal with the exploding deficit, but this will probably be dealt with by a return to inflation and a weaker US dollar.

So overseas businesses will have to deal with those higher velocity currency moves which are likely to see a weaker US dollar boost the competitiveness of US businesses that can control their costs in a higher inflation environment.

Ong Yu-En Head of Singapore and Partner Norton Rose Fulbright (Asia) LLP

It will be interesting to see what priority is given to the green finance agenda. In Singapore, there is a significant focus on sustainability and building a greener economy so there may be increased opportunities for international collaboration in this area.

Lawrence Loh Director, Centre for Governance, Institutions and Organisations NUS Business School

Joe Biden's victory is one up for sustainability. After four years of denial at the highest leadership level in the world's largest economic powerhouse, it is high time to reinstate our attention on climate change. It will be back to the Paris Agreement for the United States.

For sustainability to urgently advance, the world needs the serious commitment of the political leaders of all the biggest economies, including also China and the European Union. A critical house to fight the greenhouse is the White House. This house is in order now. The world now waits with bated breath the impending breath of fresh air.

John Bittleston Founder and Chair Terrific Mentors International Pte Ltd

Relieved of the previous regime's mania, Joe Biden will concentrate on: First, getting the pandemic under control, initially in the United States; and second, getting the world's economy back to work.

The President-elect sees both as equally important. That is good news for business. China luxury purchases from the West are on the increase. Cross-border trade, also increasing, will do so with renewed vigour. Trade talks with China will start again. The US will return to the WTO, to the Paris Climate Agreement, to the WHO and to a raft of other organisations that speak common sense. All good for business. The Trump wickedness must never be allowed again.

Dileep Nair Independent Director Thakral Corporation Limited

Business likes certainty. Donald Trump's mercurial nature made unpredictability a hallmark of his administration. Under Joe Biden, coherency in policy making will make a comeback. The new US leader will reverse the economic isolationism of Trump as Biden's approach is to build alliances. We can expect the US henceforth to engage in fewer trade wars and more trade negotiations.

Even with China, Mr Biden is likely to take a less aggressive but more predictable stance and, hopefully, work towards a framework of competitive coexistence. He will also usher in a more diplomatic approach to US foreign policy that promotes global economic growth and resilience through multilateral cooperation. This will be good news for us as a trading nation, especially if the US eventually rejoins the Trans Pacific Partnership.

David Kuo Co-founder The Smart Investor

While fresh policies over America's relationships with Asian economies from the incoming Biden administration are undoubtedly important, it is, nevertheless, crucial that the policies are not changed at the drop of a hat. Or in the case of the current administration, at the drop of a tweet in the wee small hours of the night. Businesses crave stability to enable long-term planning, which Joe Biden's government should be able to provide. A Biden administration can only have a positive effect on businesses. There is more than enough uncertainty in the world without a volatile US president adding to the unpredictability.

Helen Ng Chief Executive Officer Lock+Store

The stock market has given us the answers to what lies ahead with a Biden administration. We can look forward to economic and political stability as Joe Biden seeks to implement decisive measures to bring the pandemic outbreak under control. A return to the Paris climate agreement and a recognition that climate change is real will spark technology innovation and investment in the clean energy sector. When cooler heads prevail, the risk of trade wars will also be reduced.

Charles Reed Chief Executive Officer Royal Greyhound

The US political machine is heavily influenced by the personal characters of their President: Donald Trump with his hubris, creating havoc with US-China relations impacting the world economy even before Covid-19. Joe Biden seems to be more balanced. His policies are still unknown but he will certainly reverse some of Mr Trump's domestic policies. As Mr Biden will be taking over the presidency under a cloud of turmoil, significant divisions back home and pro-labour factions of the Democratic party, he will have his hands full before applying any focus overseas. Countries such as Malaysia have already been courted by China with heavy foreign investments.

South-east Asia has strong leaders such as Philippines' Rodrigo Duterte and Thailand's Prayut Chan-o-cha. Mr Biden may not find it easy to deal with them. While the positive is that we will enter a phase of more stability, the concern is that with the problems in the US, the focus will be domestic. I do see an excellent opportunity for Singapore to be a leading light to strengthen ties with the US. Mr Biden returning to our shores and working more closely with PM Lee Hsien Loong is a real possibility. This can put Singapore in a strong leadership position within South-east Asia and have a positive impact on our business ecosystem.

Charles H Ferguson General Manager, Asia Pacific Globalization Partners

Only time will tell, but the US President-elect could possibly introduce a more consistent foreign policy and a less nationalist economic trade approach. The administration should benefit from their new leader's experience in diplomacy as vice-president and with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. A less volatile US-China relationship would impact the wider Indo-Pacific strategy, and promote a strengthening of US alliances and partnerships in the region.

All of this bodes extremely well for economic stability, trade flow, and business expansion. In terms of overall impact to business in our region, one would hope to see an increased build of trust in technology, a desire to promote sustainability, a modern approach to digital infrastructure, a wider stance on inclusion, a global openness to sharing ideas on closing skills gaps, and hopefully a science and technology-based approach to fighting the Covid pandemic.

Maren Schweizer Chief Executive Officer Schweizer World

We are expecting positive effects on our businesses due to growth drivers in our target markets and less costly surprises. Joe Biden's approach will be much different - more collaborative, less confrontational go-it-alone. Fewer changes of direction equal a positive impact on our bottom line due to a lower number of ''just-in-case'' setups in our value chains.

Our portfolio companies in the electronics vertical focused on technologies to enable lower CO2 emissions can expect a tailwind. Climate is one of the issues where the Biden-Harris administration diverges most starkly from the Trump administration.

Mr Biden's position towards OECD BEPS 2.0, a global tax landscape initiative, will be critical. This is one area where Mr Biden is likely to continue Mr Trump's approach.

Chia Ngiang Hong President Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (REDAS)

A Biden administration will hopefully reassert rational global leadership towards solving key contemporary issues and bring about greater geopolitical and economic stability. The new leader's transition priorities to combat the coronavirus and accelerate vaccine development will pave the way for cross-border trade to recover more quickly and boost business prospects. The administration's likely focus on strengthening diplomatic ties and rebuilding longstanding international cooperation, alliances and trade pacts could promote greater openness of countries to partnerships, investments and information exchange, presenting more opportunities for businesses to grow and expand. Its inclination for a much bigger US fiscal stimulus and ambitious spending, if managed to push through, will benefit Asian exports.

Seamon Chan Managing Partner Palm Drive Capital

Thanks to the pro-immigration and internationally collaborative stance of the Biden administration, there will most likely be more global investments and partnerships encouraged, as well as further opportunities for immigrant founders to start companies in the US, and US companies to expand into international markets. Additionally, we expect to see a significant rise in diversity and, hopefully, anti-racism in society. This will most likely be reflected on gender issues as well.

With the inauguration of the US's first female Vice-President, we predict an influx of female founders, particularly minority female-led businesses, and the creation of new groups that support diversity in business. As an Asian-American business owner myself who supports diverse founders, I am looking forward to this new direction.

Mario Singh Chief Executive Officer Fullerton Markets

A Biden administration will probably need Republican support for a major stimulus package because it is highly likely that the Republicans will control the Senate. However, after running up the biggest budget deficit in history under Donald Trump, the Senate would probably hold back the kind of multi-trillion dollar spending that could usher in a Biden Boom.

Mr Biden's proposed policies are indeed a step in the right direction. With policies to raise the corporate tax rate from 21 to 28 per cent and penalise corporations that ship jobs overseas, his long-term view is to bring down the US deficit which currently stands at US$3.13 trillion in fiscal year 2020 - its highest level since just after the Second World War.

Now, the reality is that a change in presidency was priced into the equity markets weeks before the election. This is the reason markets started moving upwards once a Biden win was clear. Hence, I see overall business sentiment heading upwards as we move closer to Inauguration Day on 20 Jan 2021.

Benedict Soh Chairman Kingsmen Creatives Limited

In the business world, we look for predictability. It has been four stressful years of second-guessing every aspect of the Trump administration, which came up with a myriad of pronouncements that unsettled the world. They ranged from protectionism to outright ban of certain sectors of countries that were deemed to be in conflict of American policies or a threat to US national security. The world was roiled by the Trump administration's misinterpretation of the works of international NGOs and also by its pulling out of international agreements.

The Biden administration will for sure continue to fight for superiority in the world, but at least businesses can look forward to a government that is more honourable and which will likely be collaborative with other global powers. This in itself will produce a stronger platform for business planning.

Manish Tibrewal Chief Executive Officer Maitri Asset Management

The incoming Biden administration has already announced an ambitious climate change agenda, including rejoining the Paris Agreement and a pledge for the US to reach net zero emissions by 2050, eventually relying wholly on clean energy. This approach adds impetus to the growing green finance movement and efforts made by responsible investors, governments and citizens to hold companies to higher standards on addressing climate risk.

Following China's recent carbon neutrality pledge, climate change may be a bright spot for collaboration in the US-China relationship and we are also likely to see a less combative trade strategy which businesses across the globe will welcome. As long-term investors, we continue to maintain key positions across our portfolio based on fundamentals. In particular, the long-term outlook for the clean energy and technology sectors remain attractive, while the incoming government's stronger stance on tackling the pandemic and more collaborative approach to global trade and diplomacy will likely see reduced market volatility and help strengthen investor confidence.

Yip Hon Mun Chief Executive Officer NOROO Holdings Singapore

The significance of Joe Biden's pledge - to focus on healing the nation and tackling the pandemic - goes beyond America's shores. Corporates need stability and to count on the US to resume its role as a trusted and reliable ally.

Mr Biden appears to be ready to unwind America's retreat to isolationism. His administration is ready to rebuild alliances, restore faith in multilateralism and global institutions. It is promising and gives us much to be cautiously optimistic about.

Naveen Menon President Cisco ASEAN

We look forward to opportunities under the new administration on innovative technology, especially as the economy rebuilds in a post-pandemic world. We believe with closer collaboration with the new administration, tech companies can help usher in a new era for enhanced public sector services and efficiencies, including in remote learning and telehealth, while ensuring suitable safeguards and security, and bridging the digital divide.

As a worldwide leader in technology, Cisco also welcomes the US being more engaged on digital trade issues and continuing to play a pivotal role in helping various industries build resilience and growth. A recent Cisco study found that one-third of organisations in Asia-Pacific expect more than half of their workforce to continue working remotely post-pandemic. This points to a need to help workforces to adapt to the digital-first world, as well as to build secure and reliable critical infrastructure to support digitalisation and remote operations.

Toby Koh Group MD Ademco Security Group

The incoming Biden administration is unlikely to unravel the global bifurcation with China as seen during the Trump era. Coupled with the Covid-19 crisis, it is likely that America - which has seen populist traction amongst voters - will remain inward-looking. The EU may take a page from their playbook and increase protectionist measures.

Mr Biden's impending tax hikes will force large American firms to invest out of country and keep their profits offshore. We will see a growth of US corporates driving engagement and investment in South-east Asia, which is poised to become an increasingly worthy economic bloc. I believe South-east Asia is destined for record-breaking growth after this covid episode.

Lim Soon Hock Managing Director PLAN-B ICAG

I think it is fair to say that businesses, in general, welcome the election of Joe Biden as the new president. Based on his rhetoric and campaign manifesto, businesses can expect to see sanity and stability returning to the economy, although not at the levels of pre-Trump days, given that time is needed to unwind the disruptions, to reunite a very polarised America, and there is still the Covid-19 pandemic to be tackled.

A hockey stick recovery cannot be expected. I think we will continue to see a K-shaped economic recovery, with more industries on the uptick, as Mr Biden rolls back the ''global retreat'' agenda of Mr Trump, and the US cautiously restores global free trade, a key pivot of America's global leadership role. One outcome for sure: the business environment can only be better than the status quo.

Eryk Lee Chief Executive Officer AAM Advisory

We have already seen equity markets react positively to the US elections results. For many observers, not having a single party taking control of the White House and the Senate is seen as positive for US equity markets in the short term as it will curb more extreme policies from being implemented. A Biden victory might bring more levels of stimulus, thus pushing bond yields higher and helping to buoy financial and cyclical stocks. However, there are still uncertainties which are yet to play out, such as whether a Biden win comes with a Democrat Congress or a split Congress. The impact to businesses and industries will vary depending on sector but issues such as corporate taxes, the acceleration of a clean energy agenda, infrastructure spending, healthcare reforms, minimum wages and improvements to global trade relations are going to be closely watched.

Henry Tan Group CEO Nexia TS Group

A Biden administration is likely to result in more global trade then under the Trump administration. The new president is likely to reopen more trade talks, reconnecting and restarting old friendships and alliances. If US gets the pandemic under control, it will also be good for business and the economy as travel may restart soon. The divided vote with most likely a Republican Senate majority is likely to require a compromise position between the Republicans and Democrats and that is likely to facilitate business. Mr Biden is likely to quickly want to show results on two fronts - control of pandemic and reopening of talks and working with the world. Both these bodes well for business.

David Leong Managing Director PeopleWorldwide Consulting Pte Ltd

Joe Biden's administration will be seen as the silver lining in the dark clouds that did not seem to go away. Trump's administration ushered in a period of unprecedented and unbelievable upheavals and disruptions to global alliances with his unconventional leadership style. The US literally pulled out of its global leadership role in a nod to Trump's ''America First'' theme. He meant business and started a ferocious fight with China with the fiercest trade war of gargantuan proportions.

A Biden administration is likely to reverse these entanglements to open up pathways for collaboration and corroboration, not necessarily by being soft to China, but being more stable and not with confrontational war cries. US and China can co-exist to generate global prosperity through trade on balanced and fair terms. The world will be better off with such relational stability that was ripped apart by Mr Trump. Mr Biden must be in a hurry to fix this entanglement and ripped tissue of global relations.

Zaheer Merchant Regional Director (Singapore & Europe) QI Group of Companies

In a word, favourably. Mr Biden's approach, at least from the election rhetoric, is for measured and pro-business steps. Domestically, whether it is his Covid-19 stimulus relief all the way to Build Back Better plans, loans, healthcare, are all business-friendly. His tax policies of increased tax on those earning at least US$400,000 and raising the corporate tax rate to 28% per cent affects only the most significant but is not an impediment entirely.

Globally, trade talks are to resume, international alliances and re-engagement will commence, and undoubtedly in a more measured manner. From multilateral trading systems to China, we should see positives across verticals and laterals. If the markets are any gauge, the simple fact of the Biden win signals less uncertainty and volatility. Of course, intent must translate into actuality, which only time can tell.

Annie Yap Chief Executive Officer AYP HR Group

Joe Biden has called for changes in many sectors from the Trump presidency. A big factor that will impact businesses will stem from Biden re-establishing relations with both Nato and Europe. As America reaffirms its position in the world, businesses will expand, with more US firms vying for market share around the world, including South-east Asia. Competition is bound to pick up amongst businesses in the region. As such, businesses will need to ensure that they leverage on the improved business opportunities. More strategic regional partnerships will be formed to do so. As such, I believe that the Biden leadership in America will result in a more competitive business landscape in South-east Asia.

Dora Hoan Group CEO Best World International

How the Biden administration will affect business remains hard to answer. However, looking back at Mr Trump's extreme political agenda, the Asian economy would face headwinds under a continuation of him. After Joe Biden's takeover, his priority should be settling domestic affairs and handling the coronavirus pandemic. Among the many critical political actions Mr Biden needs to take, he has to return the US to the Paris climate accord, rejoin the World Health Organization and Trans-Pacific Partnership, and more importantly, stop the Sino-US trade war. Business development is more promising if political stability is firm.

Chua Kee Lock Chief Executive Officer Vertex Holdings

Innovation is a team sport. While South-east Asia is a rising startup ecosystem, the close collaboration between the South-east Asian and United States ecosystems will be critically important in our evolution. The collaboration between Grab and Uber to date is a case in point. Leading global venture capital firms with deep knowledge and networks in the US and South-east Asia are best poised to invest in the finest opportunities in the region, the US and perhaps even globally.