Diversifying risks in an income strategy

BACK in March, we were as stunned as anyone to be marching into an economic recession and an unprecedented global health crisis. Three months later, the global economy is once again expanding and financial asset prices are staging one of their strongest quarters in history.

Asia, especially China, has been expanding for a few months now given its earlier and generally more successful management of the virus. In the wake of this severe global downturn, we find a recovery of highly uncertain trajectory.

We expect US economic activity to return to its Q4 2019 peak in the second half of 2021, clocking this recovery at twice the speed of the one that began in mid-2009.