Anticipating calm in the Middle East

THE surprise attack by Hamas and Israel’s extended response have roiled markets in unexpected ways. In some ways, the market impact has been more significant for this than for Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022.

But in other ways, the impact has been less significant. This suggests the Middle East remains of less concern to global markets than the Eastern Caucus region of the former USSR.

At first glance, gold appears to be the main beneficiary of the Middle East conflict. But while the yellow metal has punched above the long-term resistance level at near US$2,145, the breakout is not particularly significant. It is a small rise of around 3 per cent above the long-term historical resistance level – a rise that can hardly be classed as a rush to the safety of gold. Its rise lags behind the global rate of inflation.