Considering a Trump re-election in 2024 – fiscal and geopolitical challenges

AS 2023 comes to a close, the debate over whether or not a recession is likely continues to capture investor attention. However, looming just over the horizon as the calendar turns to a new year is a prospect not yet incorporated into market expectations – the return of the 45th US president, Donald Trump, to office in 2025.

Indeed, a recent Wall Street Journal poll has the current president trailing the former president by four percentage points in a head-to-head match up. Introducing third party/independent candidates into the mix still leaves President Joe Biden trailing former president Donald Trump by 31 to 37 per cent, according to the same poll.

Perhaps more telling are polls in the six key states on which the November 2024 election is expected to hinge on – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. According to the New York Times and Siena College, the presumed Republican challenger leads Biden by four to nine percentage points in all swing states other than Wisconsin.