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Don’t let interest-rate predictions dictate your investment decisions

A better strategy would be to prepare well for potential outcomes

    • Stock-market performance should have been terrible in 2024, considering how far forecasters were off the mark regarding the US Fed's rate cuts. However, the S&P 500 turned in one of its better annual performances last year.
    • Stock-market performance should have been terrible in 2024, considering how far forecasters were off the mark regarding the US Fed's rate cuts. However, the S&P 500 turned in one of its better annual performances last year. PHOTO: AFP
    Published Tue, Jan 14, 2025 · 06:56 PM

    AT FIRST glance, it sounded like good news. Last Friday (Jan 10), the US labour department said that job growth surged in December, while the unemployment rate was lower than forecast. Curiously, the stock market wasn’t celebrating.

    According to market watchers, a healthy economy could mean fewer interest-rate cuts on the horizon – and that’s not good news for Wall Street. The market reacted swiftly, plunging last Friday as investors grappled with the implications.

    Sequences such as this suggest that interest-rate predictions can influence the stock market’s direction. Hence, it stands to reason that investors need to pay attention to forecasts or risk finding themselves on the losing end. At least, that’s what the market wants you to believe.

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