How investors can navigate a year of two halves in 2023
Don’t underestimate the opportunity set within the core asset classes of equities, where quality matters, and fixed income which is resurgent
Add BT as a preferred source
“Investment markets are micro-efficient and macro-inefficient…” Paul Samuelson
AFTER a tumultuous year, we expect 2023 to be a year of two halves. In H1 2023, risk assets may experience a volatile bottoming process, given the lagged impact of rate hikes in 2022 and ongoing negative earnings revisions. This will be followed by a broad recovery in H2 2023 as we move past peak Federal Reserve hawkishness, especially as inflation further decelerates and recessionary pressures kick in.
Macro malaise vs micro panacea
The global economy will slow from 3.2 per cent this year to just 2.2 per cent next year. We expect eurozone and the United Kingdom to suffer a prolonged downturn in the first half, while the US economy will shrink for two consecutive quarters in the second half of 2023.
Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox. Free.
Share with us your feedback on BT's products and services
