Should investors care about the outcome of the US presidential election?
Polls, especially emotionally charged ones, make investment decisions more challenging
ON NOV 5, the UK will celebrate Bonfire Night. There will be fireworks and, of course, bonfires with a “guy” on top. The origin of this is the Gunpowder Plot in 1605, when Guy Fawkes tried to blow up the House of Lords and kill King James I. He was caught red-handed after an anonymous tip-off to the authorities, convicted, and then hung, drawn and quartered.
Nov 5 is also the day when the US presidential election takes place. Given what happened in January 2021, after the last US election, this seems ironic. Will we see merely entertaining fireworks, or will bonfires occur?
Fireworks are guaranteed, as demonstrated by the first debate in June. The debate was a clear win for Trump as worries about Biden’s physical and mental capacity to continue as president for another four years rose, even within the Democratic Party. This appears to have, at least for now, reinforced Trump’s edge in the polls, while Biden is reassuring his own party that he is still the best person to take on Trump.
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