Understanding the past to forecast the future

AFTER four years of painstaking research, writing and editing, I am happy to report that Investing in US Financial History is now available online and in select bookstores in the United States and across the world. I hope it provides educational value to all investors regardless of their experience and serves as a reliable reference that helps readers contextualise the present and envision the future.

The story begins in 1790 with Alexander Hamilton’s financial programmes and ends in March 2023 with the US Federal Reserve’s ongoing effort to contain inflation. Sprinkled throughout are brief “points of interest” that explain critical investment, economic, and financial principles. Despite the passage of more than two centuries, many principles are just as relevant today as they were when the United States was in its infancy.

Here I provide a sneak peek by sharing three excerpts that each illuminate one important financial concept. The first considers the “Paradox of Speculation”, or how speculation in US securities markets produces hardship for many while also driving national progress. The second examines a challenge that most investment professionals eventually confront: whether to abandon the status quo after it has outlived its usefulness or continue to extract value from clients for outdated services that no longer deliver any. This dilemma has recently become especially acute for investment consultants serving institutional plan trustees.