Are US stocks bulls right to be so optimistic?

THE year 2022 was agonising for US stocks. Not only did they fall excruciatingly far, with a 20 per cent retreat in the S&P 500 over the 12 months. But they also dropped in a relentless way.

There was never any capitulation, the cleansing fire of panic selling that makes room for the next rally. Instead, stocks clip-clopped down 1 to 2 per cent at a time – it was orderly but painful.

Now we are seeing the same process in reverse. In 2023, stocks are up 20 per cent, all but erasing the past year’s losses and coming close to the S&P’s pandemic summit.