China’s dual-velocity economy: export ascendancy amid domestic stagnation
This bifurcation is among the most consequential predicaments facing the world’s second-largest economy
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THE Chinese economy in 2026 presents a striking paradox. One vector of economic activity surges upward with formidable momentum, while another drifts downward in a state of protracted torpor.
On the export front, China has achieved unprecedented heights, posting a record trade surplus approaching US$1.2 trillion in 2025, with aggregate exports expanding about 5.5 per cent to reach some US$3.8 trillion.
Conversely, domestic consumption remains intractably anaemic. Retail sales growth languishes near 1 per cent; property transactions have contracted 65 per cent from their 2020 apogee; and households have retreated into an unprecedented posture of precautionary thrift.
