Clearing the fog hanging over the Chinese property market

THE first whispers of worry about a Chinese property bubble surfaced in late 2009. Since then, the local real estate market has quickened and slowed in line with government measures to stoke or cool the market, but has never crashed. Nonetheless, some market watchers insist that the Chinese property bubble would burst one day. Recent sector weakness has given them further ammunition, as has the recent default of Kaisa, a midsized Shenzhen-based developer.

Until December 2014, Kaisa's finances were perceived to be strong and sales were rising. Now its survival is at the mercy of lenders and rivals. Its woes started when the government halted some of its Shenzhen projects in December without giving a reason. Shortly after, the chairman abruptly resigned. Kaisa then became China's first real estate company to default on US dollar debt after failing to pay US$52 million of interest payments to bondholders. The firm has yet to reach a consensual solution with its creditors.

Kaisa's mysterious implosion seems to stem from China's unprecedented two-year anti-corruption drive. Authorities have largely kept silent about the affair but it has since been alleged that the firm is being probed for ties to a local official accused of corruption.