Don't assume Fed action will move the market


HUMANS don't behave like computers. That makes life interesting, but it has a serious downside for economists: It is exceedingly difficult to predict the short-term directions of major markets, even when events seem to be entirely predictable.

The forthcoming decision of the Federal Reserve on interest rates is a humbling example. Consider that after seven years of virtually zero per cent short-term interest rates, the Federal Open Market Committee is almost universally expected to raise...

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