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Falling into October: Probabilities vs guesswork

The worst month of the year for markets is believed to be October, but the month is most often characterised by a rebound rally leading into the Christmas rally.

OCTOBER is the worst month in the market, according to popular wisdom. Smart investors and traders love popular market wisdom because it's so often very wrong and this provides excellent market opportunities.

Success in the markets does not come from following what most people do or believe because most of them lose money. Uncommon results do not come from common thinking.

This doesn't mean you automatically take the opposite path, but it does mean you apply a more critical assessment to common thinking. Whilst October may have been the worst month in the market several decades ago, it has been replaced by September.

September is the month when markets begin to fall and the decline accelerates....

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