Fidelity says US$4,000 gold possible as Fed cuts rates, US dollar drops
The metal is up by more than a quarter this year, as uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs, conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and accumulation by central banks buttress gains
GOLD could hit US$4,000 an ounce by the end of next year as the US Federal Reserve cuts rates to cushion the US economy, the US dollar drops, and central banks keep adding holdings, said Fidelity International.
Multi-asset fund manager Ian Samson said the firm remained bullish on the precious metal, with some cross-asset portfolios recently increasing holdings as prices eased from an all-time high above US$3,500 an ounce in April.
“The rationale for that was that we saw a clearer path to a more dovish Federal Reserve,” Samson said, adding that some funds had as much as doubled their 5 per cent allocation over the past year. Also, August is often slightly weaker for markets, so more diversification “makes sense”, he added.
Gold is up by more than a quarter this year, as uncertainty around US President Donald Trump’s aggressive attempts to reshape global trade, conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and accumulation by central banks buttressed gains. Still, the metal has traded within a tight range over the past few months, with demand for havens cooling a little as some progress in US trade talks eased fears about worst-case scenarios for the global economy.
“Perhaps you’re going to avoid the doomsday scenarios that were painted earlier in the year, but ultimately we’re heading to a 15 per cent or so tax on about 11 per cent of the US economy – which is imports,” said Samson, referring to Trump’s tariffs. “You’d expect it to slow the economy.”
Bullish outlook
Fidelity’s bullish outlook for gold is similar to that from Goldman Sachs Group, which has made the case in recent quarters for an eventual rally to as much as US$4,000 an ounce. Still, others are cautious, including Citigroup, which forecasts weaker prices. Spot bullion was last near US$3,315.
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Fed officials are due to gather this week to set policy. While no change is expected, chair Jerome Powell may face dissents from officials who want to provide support to a slowing labour market, potentially from governor Christopher Waller and vice-chair for supervision Michelle Bowman.
A US slowdown would likely see the dovish camp gain more influence in guiding policy, with the US dollar tending to soften in environments of weaker growth, Samson said. In addition, Powell – whose term as Fed chair ends next May – will probably be replaced by someone “more amenable” to lower borrowing costs as Trump continues to lobby for interest rate cuts, he said.
Non-yielding bullion typically benefits when the greenback softens and interest rates ease.
Elsewhere in the world, central banks are likely to go on buying gold, he added, while growing fiscal deficits – particularly in the US – will continue to reinforce the precious metal’s appeal as a hard asset.
“Sure, gold has come a long way, but if you look at when gold’s been in a bull market – like 2001 to 2011 – it annualised 20 per cent per annum,” he said. “From 2021 to today, it’s also annualising 20 per cent a year. So it’s not necessarily, in the context of a bull run, massively overstretched.” BLOOMBERG
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