Finding bright spots in Asean amidst a global slowdown

WITH less than six months to the end of the year, let’s take a look at what has transpired so far. At the global level, the main themes laid out at the end of 2022 have remained intact through the middle of the year.

Specifically, we at JP Morgan expected the US and global economy to display growth resilience and inflation to stay sticky. This contrasts sharply with widespread expectations that the US and Western Europe would slide into recession.

Central banks have delivered more tightening than we expected. But while aggressive global monetary policy tightening has dominated headlines and fanned recession forecast fever, first-half growth outcomes reflect a more complicated cyclical backdrop, unique to the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.