Lower trough, deeper cuts

AS US-CHINA trade tensions have oscillated between de-escalation and escalation, the growth slowdown in the Asia-ex-Japan region has unfolded in slow motion. Indeed, the prior nascent recovery has given way to a double-dip, with regional growth having eased to the lowest quarterly pace since the second quarter of 2009 during the Global Financial Crisis.

The outcome of trade tensions is key to the timing and pace of recovery. Our base case assumes that the US implements the announced tariffs in October and December, which will keep global growth, as well as the region's growth, weak over the near term.

In recent weeks, we have had goodwill gestures from both sides, such as China's resumption of agriculture purchases and the US delaying the next round of tariffs by two weeks. Talks are set to resume, raising expectations for a goodwill agreement that brings a pause in escalation.