A mini-cycle recovery is coming

THE past 18 months have been tough for the global economy. Global growth is tracking at 2.9 per cent year over year, the weakest since 2013, and global trade has been contracting. A nearly synchronous slowdown has taken hold around the world. Large economies have lost significant growth momentum, while small, open economies are approaching recession levels.

Are brighter days in store for 2020?

We think that a global economic recovery is on the cards for the first quarter. In our framework, swings in the global economy are determined primarily by trade and monetary policy. Hence, the simultaneous easing in trade tensions and build-up in policy easing will help to support global growth in the coming year.