Miscalculations and recalculations
How the events of 2022 have been misjudged by Putin, the US Federal Reserve and others, as well as shaken the global emerging markets landscape.
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Putin's miscalculation
RUSSIA'S President Vladimir Putin has fully miscalculated the West's response to his invasion of Ukraine. The speed, strength and unity of global sanctions is bringing about economic collapse in his country. A survey of economists by the Bank of Russia indicates the economy will contract 8 per cent in 2022 and inflation will surge to 20 per cent by the end of the year.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the deep human, political and economic impact it is bringing about, is forcing a reassessment by leaders globally around political and military alliances, energy and food security as well as economic and supply chain dependence. The globalisation and economic interdependence developed over the last 30 years means this redefining of the global architecture will not be instant, and will require multiple reworkings.
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