Policy vs the cycle: the latest round
Drivers of big volatility in both directions in markets at present are the conflicting forces of the cycle and government/central bank interventions.
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THE big three central banks - the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the US Federal Reserve - have spoken in what has been a busy two weeks for policy. What they have said, what they have done, and what they have promised, will support the risk asset market rally a bit longer.
Indeed, they may even break out of the downtrend channels they have been trading within in recent months. Over recent weeks, we have written about risk asset markets trading "up the downtrend channel" - meaning, they had been "mean-reverting" within declining trend channels. So now, they may even attempt to build sideways ranges for a while.
But a new bull market? No.
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