SCIENCE OF WEALTH

The rate cut that never came, and the case for bonds

When – and not if – equities eventually wobble, the diversification benefit will be needed most

Summarise
    • Professional forecasters still get the next rate move wrong often enough that building a portfolio around “what the Fed will do next” is a literal bet.
    • Professional forecasters still get the next rate move wrong often enough that building a portfolio around “what the Fed will do next” is a literal bet. PHOTO: REUTERS
    Published Tue, Oct 6, 2026 · 03:00 PM

    FOR most of 2026, the market’s working assumption was that the US Federal Reserve’s next move would be a rate cut.

    As recently as April, a Reuters poll of economists had the Fed on hold until September and then easing. Traders positioned for it, strategists wrote around it, and investors tilted towards it.

    Another reminder of why forecasting is a dangerous profession and potentially a costly one.