Staying rational in risk-filled world
Significant areas of risks include China's shadow banking system, structural inefficiencies in Europe and political uncertainty
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THE recent volatility in global markets is unremarkable. What is remarkable is the lack of volatility in the past two years.
The macro conditions we envisaged in 2012 continue to hold. The world continues to recover, albeit at a slower, long-term trend growth rate. Long-term trend growth is slower post 2008 because of slower credit creation.
The major rebalancing between developed and emerging markets continues where the US current account improves and that of its trading partners deteriorate.
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