Trade of a decade? It doesn't bode well for emerging markets

Falling exports and contracting manufacturing persist, unlike the forces behind the rally

New York / London

BEHIND the best gains for emerging markets since 2009, there are some ominous signs that the rally is about to hit a wall.

The 13 per cent surge in stocks last month was accompanied by the lowest trading volume for five years in the markets with the biggest advances and the weakest company profits for six. In the foreign-exchange market, currencies are mirroring moves in oil prices by the most since 2012, suggesting vulnerability to any renewed weakness in commodities.

It all underscores the fragility of a rebound driven by US$37 billion of inflows from investors in March, more than in any month since June 2014. Bears including Barclays Plc and UBS AG say it's at odds with falling...


BT is now on Telegram!

For daily updates on weekdays and specially selected content for the weekend. Subscribe to