INSIGHTS FROM CFA SOCIETY SINGAPORE

Understand the markets’ pattern, rather than fixate on a ‘magic number’

We are moving away from free trade and towards a global order of might and bilateral ties

    • The lesson is not that history repeats itself perfectly, but instead that it provides a “yardstick” to measure the trends of today.
    • The lesson is not that history repeats itself perfectly, but instead that it provides a “yardstick” to measure the trends of today. IMAGE: PIXABAY
    Published Tue, Aug 11, 2026 · 04:03 PM

    [SINGAPORE] We often navigate our portfolios by looking through the rear-view mirror of the last five or 10 years, assuming the future will be reasonably similar to the recent past.

    However, a report from the CFA Institute Research Foundation, Five Financial Eras, suggests we gaze at too small a slice of time.

    By analysing nearly a millennium of data, the report’s author, economist Bryan Taylor, argues that while the markets are not a repeating loop, they do follow predictable “zeitgeists” that define entire generations.