What history tells us about what it takes to reap positive market returns amid an oil shock

CONFLICTS such as the US-Iran war and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine can have a long-tail result on the global economy. However, looking back more than 50 years, those effects have varied.

The US-Iran conflict of 2026 has produced an oil supply shock to the global economy that mirrors energy shocks of the past.

In terms of size, the current conflict has translated into an initial hit on nearly 6 to 8 per cent of the global demand.