When the market does not react the way you expect
It is important to pay more attention to how the market is acting, rather than how you think it should be acting
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"DO as I say, not as I do" was attributed to preachers, but would work just as well for the investment advisory business.
Last month we discussed comparing one's investment outlook with the consensus, but this consensus must be based on what investors are doing, not what they are saying. It's always an interesting exercise to ask a chief economist who has just given his outlook for the year, how he actually positions his own personal portfolio.
If investors are saying they're bullish EM equities, but have yet to pull the trigger because (choose your favourite) they are:
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