Why an all-weather portfolio is your best friend

THE global economy is, by most near-term measures, in reasonable health. Corporate profits are rising, artificial intelligence-driven investment is booming, and labour markets – while cooling – remain resilient.

Yet, beneath this constructive surface lies a set of structural forces so profound, and so genuinely uncertain in their ultimate direction, that investors who build portfolios around a single long-term conviction may be making a costly mistake.

US Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh, whatever one thinks of his near-term monetary policy instincts, is right about one thing: This is not a moment for high conviction on the long-run outlook.