The so-called 'Great Resignation' is no workers' revolution, but an opportunity

THE trouble with jazzy neologisms is that the nuances get lost. As the so-called 'Great Resignation' roars through the US and piques excitement in Singapore, it has become something of a Rorschach blot: we think we are all talking about the same thing, when we're not.

With the US monthly quit rates smashing all-time highs since March 2021, observers are pouncing on hints that Singapore may be in for the same ride. A survey conducted last month by jobs portal Indeed, which found that 24 per cent of workers are intending to leave in H1 2022, has been widely cited. There has also been a slew of coverage on worker burnout.

We don't yet know how many workers who say they'll quit will follow through - but it doesn't seem to matter. Disgruntled workers are rooting for mass resignations, which would vindicate their grievances against long hours and work-induced anxiety. Employers are starting to sweat, with human resource (HR) gurus telling them to buck up or lose your troops.

Some are also positing that this is all part of a global drift away from work, led by younger generations - akin to the "lying flat" movement that trended among China's youths last year. Depending on your persuasions, this is either the height of sheer entitlement, or a party invitation.

Either way, we should moderate our excitement. There is no reason to believe we are on the verge of a labour revolution here in Singapore.

Singapore workers are opting in, not out

One theory goes that Millennials and Gen Zs are driving the Great Resignation, fed up with high costs of living and the capitalistic rat race. The reality is different. Americans did flee the workforce when the pandemic hit - but the ones responsible are seniors.

Last November, a Goldman Sachs research note reported that 5 million American workers left the labour force during the pandemic, of which 3.4 million were over the age of 55. About 2.5 million were deciding to retire, of which 1.5 million were early retirements. This might seem like a drop in the bucket compared to over 4 million American workers quitting their jobs monthly, but there is an important difference: Retirees are not coming back.

Possibly due to a combination of Covid fears, stimulus cheques and wealth gains from the stock market boom, these Americans have called it quits. Some may return when savings dry up or retirement fails to meet expectations, but for now, the shortfall is keeping the US's labour force participation rate (LFPR) depressed below pre-pandemic levels, fuelling the labour market tightness.

To be sure, early retirement is one way to "stick it to the man", and seniors are just as qualified to lead a workers' revolution as youths. But nothing of the sort is happening in Singapore.

In fact, the very opposite is true: our LFPR rose sharply to a historic 70.5 per cent in 2021, after stagnating at about 68 per cent in the 6 years prior (2015-2020), according to manpower ministry statistics. The increase was broad-based, across all age groups - including Millennials, Gen Zs, and seniors even above the age of 70.

Far from "opting out", Singapore workers are leaning in.

So far, a white collar market

A notable characteristic of the US Great Resignation is where the surge in job exits is coming from. Blue collar workers are leading the march, from essential and frontline industries hardest hit by the pandemic.

In November 2021, the US leisure and hospitality industry alone accounted for a whopping 1 million resignations - a 61 per cent increase, in a single year - or over a fifth of the national number, while accounting for only about 10 per cent of total employment.

Armed with higher bargaining power as the economy recovers, these workers are looking for a better deal. And with leisure, hospitality and restaurant wages up by 14.1 per cent as at December 2021 compared to a year ago, wage growth in these industries is outpacing the rest.

In contrast, there were lower recruitment and resignation rates in Q3 2021 for Singapore's non-PMETs compared to the preceding quarter - which is why our national resignation rates stayed flat. Resignation rates remained stable or declined in frontline sectors such as retail, F&B services, and cleaning.

For Singapore's PMETs, on the other hand, our Great Resignation - if it should be called that at all - has already quietly begun. The resignation rate in the financial services sector rose sharply to 1.8 per cent in Q3 2021 from 0.8 a year prior, while the professional services sector recorded a similar rise from 1.1 to 1.8 per cent. In both instances, resignation rates are surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

Rather than an underdog's uprising, the increase in bargaining power is mainly accruing to higher-income professionals being courted in the talent war. This may very well change as social restrictions continue to loosen and business picks up, lifting hiring demand in frontline industries even as foreign worker access stays tight. But so far, this is a white collar playing field.

Not a revolution, but an opportunity

While we are unlikely to see mass resignations on the scale of the US, we can indeed expect resignation rates to rise - which is perfectly consistent with what economists expect from a recovering economy. In tough times, people hunker down and cleave to job security. When the tide lifts again, hiring demand rises and workers have more options.

For overly long-haired, red-eyed workers emerging from your caves to search for greener pastures, the odds have never been this much in your favour. Jobs are flooding the market, with the seasonally-adjusted ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons having risen from 1.63 in June 2021 to 2.09 in September. The last time we saw that ratio rise above 2 was 1997.

This "Great Singapore Sale" of jobs is a ripe opportunity to advocate, within reason, for healthier work practices and well-being perks such as flexible work arrangements. There are merits in doing so, in a country that works some of the longest hours weekly in the world.

It remains to be seen if this will translate to more career and wage progression opportunities for lower-income workers in frontline industries. But we can still begin the conversation now.

Employers may find the process frustrating, but we will hopefully emerge from this with a healthier and more productive workforce. This is not a workers' revolution, but possibly something better: a good-faith negotiation between Singaporeans who want employment, and those with the means to provide it. We should not waste the chance.