Will the green transition be undermined by the commodity surge?

THE statistics are grim - key commodity prices, including food, metals, energy are rising sharply, reflecting tight supplies and considerable risks around the conflict in Ukraine. A stagflationary scenario, under which supply-side factors keep inflation elevated as demand falters, is an increasingly plausible one.

Extreme situations like these galvanise policies and shift previously intransigent positions rapidly. Nowhere is this more visible than the recent overtures of the US government, as it has reached out to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) members, Iran, and even Venezuela to boost crude oil production.

Additionally, the Biden administration is strongly encouraging US shale producers to pump substantially more.