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Gita Gopinath：别被表象迷惑——全球经济已发生巨变

美国关税造成的损害迄今尚不明显，但这种情况不会持久。

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    • 仅关税一项就使通货膨胀率增加了0.7个百分点，导致典型的美国家庭财富缩水600美元。
    • 仅关税一项就使通货膨胀率增加了0.7个百分点，导致典型的美国家庭财富缩水600美元。 照片：REUTERS

    Gita Gopinath

    Published Thu, Jan 8, 2026 · 07:00 AM

    本文由AI辅助翻译

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    2025年，一切都改变了——但不知何故，似乎又什么都没变。美国将关税提高到近一个世纪以来的最高水平，中国采取了报复措施，全球政策的不确定性加剧。

    尽管如此，全球经济增长率预计仍为3.2%，这与一年前预测者在没有任何动荡迹象时所预期的完全一致。然而，如果认为全球经济未受关税战和政策混乱的影响，那就大错特错了。

    这一幕我们似曾相识。当英国脱欧公投通过时，尽管不确定性急剧增加，其最初的经济影响却微乎其微。

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