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美国陷入滞胀陷阱的可能性日益增加

伊朗战争带来的石油冲击可能将美国经济从放缓推向更棘手的困境

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    • 历史表明，当能源成本飙升时，其影响很少仅限于油价本身。
    • 历史表明，当能源成本飙升时，其影响很少仅限于油价本身。 图片来源：路透社

    R Sivanithy

    Published Tue, Apr 7, 2026 · 07:00 AM

    本文由AI辅助翻译

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    最近几周，越来越多专家观察员提出，由于伊朗战争导致的高油价，美国经济可能陷入滞胀——即在通胀上升的同时经济增长停滞。

    两周前，Moody’s Analytics首席经济学家Mark Zandi在X上发布一系列帖子称，该公司基于机器学习的经济模型显示，美国经济衰退（定义为连续两个季度国内生产总值负增长）的概率为49%，“这甚至还没算上中东地区令人不安的事件”。

    Zandi表示：“在伊朗冲突和由此导致的油价飙升背景下，预计该指标将突破关键的50%门槛并非夸张。”他指出，除了新冠疫情期间，二战以来的每一次经济衰退之前都出现了油价的急剧上涨。

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