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下一场金融危机或将始于发达经济体的主权债务

新兴市场将在此类动荡中承受过重的后果

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    • 近期私募股权和私人信贷市场承压，这提醒我们，在多年超低利率期间积累的脆弱性正逐渐显现。
    • 近期私募股权和私人信贷市场承压，这提醒我们，在多年超低利率期间积累的脆弱性正逐渐显现。 照片来源：彭博社

    Anoop Singh

    Published Thu, Jun 11, 2026 · 07:00 AM

    本文由AI辅助翻译

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    在过去四十年的大部分时间里，金融危机通常与新兴市场联系在一起。拉丁美洲债务危机、1997年的亚洲金融风暴、1998年的俄罗斯危机以及2001年的阿根廷危机，都呈现出过度借贷、资本外逃和投资者信心突然逆转的相似模式。

    然而，重大危机并不仅限于新兴市场。2007-2008年的全球金融危机源于美国，而欧元区主权债务危机和2022年的英国国债市场动荡则表明，发达经济体本身也可能成为不稳定的源头。

    如今，风险平衡正在进一步转变。许多发达经济体的公共债务处于历史高位，赤字居高不下，主权债券市场对通货膨胀、利率和投资者信心也更为敏感。

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