SocGen shares plunge after new strategy sees little growth

Societe Generale’s shares dropped more than 6 per cent on Monday (Sep 18) after France’s third-biggest listed bank said it expected little if any growth in annual sales over the coming years in a keenly-awaited strategic plan from its new CEO.

Slawomir Krupa took over in May, charged with reviving a bank that has slipped behind French leader BNP Paribas and some other European rivals amid a costly exit from Russia last year and concerns it is too reliant on volatile investment banking.

SocGen on Monday set a key profitability target – return on tangible equity (ROTE) – and its shareholder payout goal a shade below previous ones. Its cost-cutting target was more ambitious as it expects annual revenue growth of just 0 per cent to 2 per cent from 2022-26.

“We are negatively surprised by lack of revenue growth, increased capital target, payout and ROTE cut, and by the lack of details,” Jefferies analysts said in a note.

SocGen’s challenges highlight the predicament of French banks, which tend to benefit later than European peers from interest rate rises because of the dominance of fixed-rate mortgages in France and government limits on passing on rate hikes. It is a particular problem as the global economy struggles.

SocGen now targets a 9 per cent to 10 per cent ROTE in 2026, and paying out 40 per cent to 50 per cent of reported net income to shareholders in dividends and buybacks from 2023 onwards. It had previously expected ROTE to reach about 10 per cent in 2025 and a payout ratio of 50 per cent.

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A SocGen veteran and former head of its investment bank, Krupa said he would streamline the bank’s activities but did not elaborate.

“We will strengthen the group by shaping a simplified business portfolio, while taking the right actions to build up capital and increase flexibility, structurally improve our operating leverage and maintain our best-in-class risk management”, he said.

The share price decline put SocGen on course for the biggest one-day drop since March.

Exane described the goals as “underwhelming”, while JP Morgan analysts said in a note that the targets were below consensus in terms of revenue expectations but welcomed the focus on cost and a “prudent approach on revenues”.

“It will take time for the shares to discount the cost improvement given SG’s mixed track record,” they said. “The new CEO will have to earn investor goodwill through delivery.”

SocGen did not give any update on the potential sale of non-core assets, after Krupa said last month he intended to run a “tight ship” in terms of the bank’s portfolio.

It has said it will sell four African units and review a fifth one on the continent. It is also open to a sale of its equipment finance unit, sources have told Reuters.

SocGen said the new strategy would lead to write-downs for the remaining part of its African, Mediterranean and Overseas activities, as well as its Equipment Finance division for a total of about 340 million euros (S$494.7 million).

It also said it would reduce its exposure to upstream oil and gas businesses by 80 per cent by 2030 when compared to 2019.

SocGen trades at about a third of its book value, almost on par with Deutsche Bank but half the multiple of its bigger French rival BNP Paribas and Italy’s UniCredit, amid concerns about the company’s exposure to more volatile income from investment banking. Reuters