Opec turmoil could turn IEA's balanced market into shortfall

London

THE world's most prominent oil forecaster, the International Energy Agency (IEA), anticipates near-equilibrium between supply and demand in global crude markets next year. But if Opec members can't resolve some massive output disruptions, that will turn into a significant shortfall.

World oil production in 2017 will very nearly match consumption, ending several years of oversupply, the Paris-based IEA forecast on June 14. For that to happen, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would have to pump an extra 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) over the year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on IEA data. That would require solutions to militant attacks in Nigeria, deep political divisions in Libya, or an economic crisis in Venezuela.