New York
IF at first you don't succeed, revise, revise again. That's become the mantra of Wall Street's bond-market forecasters this year. Stephen Stanley knows how frustrating it's been. The chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC has cut his Treasury 10-year yield forecast five times, to 2.2 per cent from 3.6 per cent.
"I've pretty much pulled out what's left of my hair trying to figure out bond yields this year," Mr Stanley said.
He's far from alone. Strategists who had watched the US unemployment rate fall by half since the financial crisis entered 2016 fixated on domestic economic data and forecasting Treasury yields would rise. If inflation climbed towards the Federal Reserve's...
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