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Positive outlook for emerging markets

The economies of the so-called BRICs are reeling from the upheavals of the commodities market, but there is hope yet, analysts say
Thursday, January 21, 2016 - 05:50
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"The fundamentals of emerging markets have significantly improved over the last decade. Foreign currency reserves in emerging markets have steadily risen, and emerging markets have in general much lower levels of public debt in relation to GDP," says Mark Mobius.
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"Emerging markets need to implement strong and focused policies to reduce imbalances, relieve infrastructure bottlenecks and realise structural reform to enhance potential growth rate of their economies," says Hung Tran.
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"While people are wringing their hands in anxiety about China, I am much more optimistic and confident that China will not only pull off the vast transition which she has now engaged in, but that the transition is creating fascinating new business models and investment opportunities," says Kenneth Courtis.
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"I'm optimistic that emerging markets can have a fairly good recovery before the end of 2016, despite the unpromising start to the year. The China risks have been exaggerated, especially the devaluation of the renminbi, which has been really quite modest," says Robert Lloyd-George.
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"Many emerging economies are now barely recognisable from those of 25-30 years ago. Living standards have improved and growth rates must decline to reflect the slower growth of world trade and newer challenges these now more sophisticated economies face. Regardless, the growth rates of these economies should still be greater than the developed economies," says William Thomson.
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"There will be a huge buying opportunity when markets realise that the Fed is going to resume monetary easing and that China has not lost control of its currency," says Christopher Wood.

Roundtable panellists

  • Mark Mobius, Executive Chairman,Templeton Emerging Markets Group
  • Hung Tran, Executive Managing Director, Institute of International Finance (IIF)
  • Kenneth Courtis, Chairman, Starfort
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