Australian consumer confidence slumps as prices, rates take toll

AUSTRALIA’S consumer confidence declined in April as persistent inflation and interest rates at a 12-year high continued to squeeze households, leaving them gloomy about the economic outlook.

Sentiment dropped 2.4 per cent to 82.4 points, indicating pessimists heavily outweigh optimists as a reading of 100 is the dividing line, a Westpac Banking survey showed on Tuesday (Apr 9). The index has held below 100 for more than two years.

“Outside of the deep recession of the early 1990s, this is easily the second most protracted period of deep consumer pessimism since we began surveying in the mid-1970s, with all other sentiment slumps lasting nine months or less,” said Matthew Hassan, a senior economist at Westpac. “Consumer price rises have outstripped wage growth by 6 percentage points over the last three years.”

The weakness reflects the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inability to rule out further interest rate hikes, suggesting little relief in the offing for consumers. While economists widely expect the central bank will lower rates late this year, a surprisingly resilient labour market and a relentless rise in house prices could delay a rate-cutting cycle.

One cause for optimism ahead is tax cuts that are due to come into effect on Jul 1.

Westpac highlighted the survey’s bleak assessments of household balance sheets – the “finances vs a year ago” sub-index was just 65.5, suggesting tax relief “cannot come fast enough for consumers”.

GET BT IN YOUR INBOX DAILY

Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.

Sign UpVIEW ALL

Confidence in the economic outlook slipped in April, with the “economy, next five years” sub-index declining 4.4 per cent to 89.8, shifting back towards the low seen when the RBA raised rates in November, the survey showed. The “economy next 12 months” sub-index declined 2.7 per cent to 82.7 – having fallen 7.1 per cent in two months.

The RBA raised rates by 4.25 percentage points between May 2022 and November last year, its most aggressive tightening cycle in a generation as it tries to rein in an inflation breakout triggered by pandemic-era stimulus.

“The bank’s latest commentary shows it is becoming a little more comfortable that further rate rises will not be required but it is not yet confident enough about the inflation outlook to consider the case for rate cuts,” Hassan said. “The March quarter CPI update, due Apr 24, will be key to shaping the RBA’s views.” BLOOMBERG