IN the weeks leading up to the Fifa World Cup, I spent countless hours poring through dozens of football websites, listened to one podcast after another, and read the official tournament guide book from cover to cover - all in an effort to figure out which of the 32 teams in Qatar would go on to lift the gleaming trophy.

Whenever I’m watching the matches, I do enjoy a small flutter (with the sole legal gaming operator, Singapore Pools, of course), just to crank the excitement level up a notch or two.

It’s fascinating to see how the odds fluctuate in the hours leading up to a match, as the bookmakers adjust the prices depending on betting patterns.

One game that didn’t see much movement, however, was Argentina’s opening group match against Saudi Arabia on Tuesday (Nov 22).

There was little to suggest that the two-time champions from South America led by Lionel Messi would not defeat their less-illustrious opponents, the second-lowest ranked nation in Qatar in 51st place.

With Argentina being one of the red-hot favourites for the title, it seemed the only uncertainty before the kick-off would be the size of their winning margin.

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Such was the low profile of the Saudis that only a handful of journalists turned up for their pre-match press conference, compared to the media circus seen at Argentina’s session.

What happened at the 88,000-capacity Lusail International Stadium seemed to defy all football logic. Sure, the ball is round and it’s 11 humans against another 11 on the pitch, but you would have been hard-pressed to find someone willing to place a wager on the Saudis winning.

And win, they did. The hardworking and more athletic Arabs made a mockery of their status as World Cup minnows (they were priced as much as 19-to-1 to pull off an unlikely victory), and what’s more impressive was the fact they had to bounce back from being a goal down to stun Argentina 2-1.

Just 24 hours later on Wednesday, another underdog, Japan, produced an almost carbon-copy performance as they rallied from a one-goal deficit at half-time and scored twice in the second period to defeat mighty Germany.

The Blue Samurai’s odds to win were roughly 6-to-1, and that was probably a fair enough reflection of Japan’s chances given they were up against the four-time World Cup winners.

Let’s give credit where it is due, and anyone who witnessed these two monumental upsets would agree that Saudi Arabia and Japan were more than deserving of their victories, which puts them on course for a place in the Round of 16.

Win or bust

As Argentina and Germany dust off the cobwebs from their opening game slumber, they both know that a win in their second group game is essential if they are to avoid an embarrassing exit and an early flight home.

That’s easier said than done, though. Argentina square off against Mexico on Sunday (3 am kick-off, Singapore time) in a match where a draw is of little use to either team.

For the 35-year-old Messi, he’s well aware that this is his final chance to add the World Cup trophy to his heaving collection of accolades, having won the Spanish La Liga 10 times, the Ballon d’Or seven times, the Champions League four times and the Copa America once.

He’s already seen his team’s proud 36-match unbeaten run crumble before his eyes, and as the captain, he will have to rally his troops like he’s never done before. They’ve been in this intense pressure-cooker situation many times before, and they have 90 minutes to redeem themselves or see their World Cup quest end in ignominy.

Germany, meanwhile, have an even tougher assignment on paper as they tussle with the 2010 champions Spain on Monday (3 am start time).

The Germans clearly underestimated the fighting spirit by Japan and the tactical acumen of their coach Hajime Moriyasu, and they were duly punished by two well-taken goals in the closing stages of the second half. 

Germany’s coach Hansi Flick knows that a repeat of such complacency against the free-scoring Spaniards will see his team depart the World Cup at the first hurdle for a second consecutive tournament.

Spain dismantled a hapless Costa Rica 7-0 in their first match, with six different players getting on the scoreboard. That result was notable with teenager Gavi - aged 18 years and 110 days - becoming the World Cup’s third youngest goalscorer after Mexico’s Manuel Rosas and Brazilian legend Pele.

The last time these two teams met was in the Nations League in November 2020, when Spain inflicted Germany’s worst defeat since 1931 as Ferran Torres netted a hat-trick in a 6-0 romp.

Monday’s match is by far the most anticipated fixture at the World Cup’s so-called “Group of Death”, and for Germany another loss will surely be the final nail in their coffin.