THE BROAD VIEW

How American business can save the United States in Asia

Ernest Z Bower
Published Fri, Dec 16, 2022 · 03:30 PM

AMERICAN businesses need to work together to fill the widening and dangerous gap created by the lack of a comprehensive and credible US economic strategy for the Indo-Pacific.

In the last decade, neither Democrat nor Republican administrations have been able to put together a plan that convinces US partners in Asia that our country is committed to, ready to compete in and able to sustain its focus on the region.

Companies should ramp up their resourcing in Asia, with a particular focus on South-east Asia, and work together and with governments to shore up US economic commitment to this dynamic region.

Asia is worth the effort. While economists bemoan global recessionary trends, Asia stands out as a resilient engine of growth. The International Monetary Fund predicts Asia will grow twice as fast as the world economy in 2023. That is significant given the fact that the world’s second-largest economy, and Asia’s biggest, China, is not firing on all pistons.

Rising geopolitical tensions between China and the United States undercut the US government’s ability to meaningfully engage Asia economically. While no country in Asia wants China to dominate the regional economic and geopolitical landscape, neither do they want any other country to do so, including the United States.

The goal is balance and peaceful competition. Business shares that goal.

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Three decades ago, the rest of Asia was discomfited by seeming Japanese dominance of their economies, and countries in South-east Asia worked hard to ensure the United States stayed engaged. South-east Asia’s most effective ally in that effort was the American private sector.

It is different for China. Japan did not have a forward deployed military, nor was it explicitly competing with the United States and other Indo-Pacific powers on security issues such as the South China Sea, Taiwan or contested borders in the Himalayas.

Meanwhile, China has lost the strong support from US business that once carried its case for membership in the World Trade Organization and opening trade and investment. That enthusiasm was squandered due to China’s handling of foreign investors.

For that reason, South-east Asia remains, by far, the top destination for American investment in Asia. In fact, four of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) are among the top 10 US trading partners.

Given all this, US businesses should step up and focus on Asia’s “middle countries” – meaning nearly every country in the Indo-Pacific region that is not China or the United States.

It is these countries, anchored by South-east Asia, that will drive policy innovation and decide which standards are adopted as the United States and China clash. It is the place where the world’s leading economies will meet and compete.

Asean is the core of regional economic, security and cultural architecture. The region’s most important trade agreements, leaders’ meetings and annual meetings are Asean-centred.

South-east Asia is a place where the United States still maintains a critical advantage, but that edge is eroding due to flagging trust in America’s ability to stay focused due to the United States’ fraught politics and the centrality of its intensifying fight with China.

Ironically, China is also undercutting its advantages. While it is geographically proximate and shares economic interests with the rest of Asia, China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea and the Himalayas, employing hard-edged “wolf warrior” diplomacy and aggressively moving to promote the Chinese Communist Party’s interests through actions such as posting the first veteran of its International Liaison Department as ambassador in Singapore, in the centre of Asean, are undermining trust and raising concerns in the rest of Asia.

America’s friends in Asia know that in the US system, the allocation of capital and technology is in the hands of the private sector. This is not true in China’s case. In recent years, this has resulted in a mistaken impression that while China is focusing with intent on Asia, the United States has focused instead on other regions of the world.

That is not true if one examines the investment and trade numbers, including services and investments in the energy sector.

Yet US companies need to do more, and quickly, to fill this gap. Individually, they need to conduct baseline surveys of their internal allocation of talent and other resources.

Most companies have not effectively pivoted from North America and Europe to Asia when it comes to key infrastructure such as strategy, sales and government affairs personnel. They are covering their fastest-growing and most promising market with significantly fewer staff and less infrastructure.

That needs to change. Proper resourcing will enable companies to better respond to changes in Asia, where firms will increasingly be expected to weigh in on challenges affecting the region’s young populations including social issues, climate change, health inequalities and food insecurity.

Collectively, American companies should work together and with companies from around Asia, including China, to bring new ideas for market opening and expansion to governments. American companies cannot afford to wait for governments to act.

Sometimes, this can be done through supporting existing initiatives, such as Indonesia’s effort to operationalise Asean’s Indo-Pacific Outlook in economic areas such as connectivity or Japan’s expected supply chain resilience projects under its Indo-Pacific strategy.

At other times, companies may be expected to lead in a big way. Witness, for example, the US’ Indo-Pacific Economic Framework featuring seven Asean countries, where the first major deliverable at its September ministerial was a digital upskilling initiative with commitments by 14 US companies to provide seven million training and education opportunities in the next 10 years.

With good ideas and wins in South-east Asia focused on achievable but ambitious goals such as increasing investment in key sectors including climate change, energy, digital inclusion, health and crisis management, companies will attract the attention of governments.

This will give well-meaning and highly capable government officials in the United States and around Asia, including in China, the political space to self-correct and shift away from the self-destructive paths many are currently pursuing to focus on growth, cooperation and strengthening security for all.

Ernest Z Bower is president and CEO of BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm focused on the Indo-Pacific region.

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