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Europe's chronic stagnation could give way to more ills

Published Mon, Nov 3, 2014 · 09:50 PM

CAN Mario Draghi save Europe? Mr Draghi heads the European Central Bank (ECB), Europe's equivalent of the Federal Reserve. The fact that the question is being asked is an unsettling reminder that the "European crisis", once declared over and done, is anything but. Europe resembles a patient with a chronic condition. Sometimes the patient's health gets a bit better, sometimes a bit worse, but the illness persists and constantly threatens to cause acute, possibly catastrophic distress.

Although Americans are rightly upset about the slow recovery from the 2007-09 Great Recession, the US rebound has been speedy compared to the European. Since 2008, Europe has experienced two recessions (periods when the economy declined for at least half a year) and may now be on the verge of a third. The output of the US economy has surpassed its early 2008 level by about 8 per cent, according to data Mr Draghi presented at a recent briefing. Meanwhile, the output of eurozone is still 2 per cent below its 2008 level.

Private investment has collapsed. It's down about 15 per cent from 2008. Public investment (in schools, roads and hospitals) has dropped about 20 per cent. The social consequences are horrendous. In September, the eurozone's unemployment rate was 11.5 per cent, only a slight decline from a 12 per cent peak a year earlier. Among the young (under 25), the average was 23.3 per cent. In Italy, Spain and Greece, it was near 50 per cent.

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