Investors are happy. Stock markets have started 2018 with a bang, and bond markets are remarkably stable. The US dollar is weak and oil prices are up. The commodity price crash a few years ago and the resulting economic slump is fast fading into distant memory.

Worst case scenarios have not materialised. There is no North Korean-inspired nuclear war, no China-triggered South China Sea war, and no protectionism-related trade war. Inflation has not spiked in the US, so interest rates have not risen sharply either. The job market is buoyant, and US unemployment keeps hitting record lows.

Central banks remain powerful monetary backstops should recessionary conditions appear again. Having leaned significantly on the side of caution when deciding whether to raise rates or not, they are not likely to suddenly hike rates too quickly unless it is clear that the economy is overheating.